Abortion Wins in the Midterms

The election results will not immediately change abortion access anywhere. Still, the results signaled that Americans want abortion to be legal.

What’s happening:

1. The Democrats kept their Senate majority.
   • A national abortion is no longer a threat–at least for the next few years.
2. Republicans won the House of Representatives.
3. In every state where voters were asked directly about abortion, abortion won.
   • Three states enshrined abortion access into their constitutions:
     • In Michigan, where abortion rights were on shaky ground, a ballot initiative solidified the right to abortion.
       • Before the election, a judge had temporarily blocked a 1931 near-total abortion ban. With the ballot initiative passed, this old abortion ban is now permanently overturned.
       • The Senate has a Democratic majority, and the Governor & Attorney General are both Democrats who vowed to support abortion rights.
     • In California, abortion was already protected until viability. Voters added an amendment to the state constitution protecting the right to abortion and contraception.
     • Vermont already had strong protections for abortion, and also added this to its constitution.
   • Two other states rejected abortion limitations, just as Kansas did in August.
     • Kentucky rejected an amendment that would have declared that there was no right to abortion, and no requirement to fund abortion.
     • Montana rejected a law that would have required doctors to make every effort to preserve the life of an ‘infant born alive,’ including from an abortion.
       • Neonatal doctors objected too, because it would have limited their ability to provide palliative care to infants who will not survive.

Yes, but: Florida and Ohio seem to have solidified their anti-abortion stance.

• Florida already had a 15-week abortion ban in effect, and re-elected Governor Ron DeSantis who supports a total abortion ban.
• Ohio elected three conservative state Supreme Court Justices who will likely determine the future of abortion rights there. Ohio’s 6-week ban that is currently blocked by a judge, awaiting a hearing at the state Supreme Court.

Why this matters:

• Polls have told us for decades that most Americans wants abortion to stay available in most cases. It seems that hasn’t changed.
• Democrats outperformed everyone’s expectations (including maybe even their own), which could change the way both parties think about abortion:
  • Some moderate Republicans may back away from their extreme rhetoric, and from continuing to try to ban abortion.
  • Democrats may be more encouraged to try to codify Roe into federal law.

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